This week I had interesting discussions regarding the future of the housing market with two highly educated clients both in financial fields. One was thinking about selling, one buying. Both were talking about condos around the $600,000 price point in the upper middle class Los Angeles area of Brentwood.
The seller decided to hang on to his unit as he thought that housing prices have turned and will go up in the next couple of years. The buyer is choosing to wait as he believes the market will go down. Both are sure their knowledge of finance makes them certain of these trends.
I found it interesting that both parties had such specific ideas of exactly what the future held, both citing scenarios that supported the choices they made. I believe this is human nature, but it was interesting to see it so clearly in action the same week regarding the exact same product.
The reality is this: no one knows how markets will go. If they did, everyone would be rich. And having omnipotent insight into the markets in itself would change the future outcome. On one hand, interest rates are at an all-time low, making affordability undeniably accessible. On the other hand, if the interest rates go up even two percent, affordability will be stunted and prices will be forced to come down.
Higher interest rates might mean lower home prices, but the monthly costs should remain similar. Plus there may be a cost in waiting. Let’s say you save $50,000 on the cost of a home by waiting for the interest rates to rise and home prices to come down, but you spent $2000 a month on rent waiting the two years for that savings to happen. You spent $48,000 on rent to save $2,000 and lived in a rental for two years, only to have nearly the same home payment in the end and no tax benefits during your wait. Have you come out ahead?
Conversely, if you believe that the market is going up and you plan on selling in two years. You then decide to rent your place for a price that might be $1,000 less than your current payments (with management fees, HOA, taxes, insurance, and mortgage), putting you out $24,000 over two years. Then you subtract the raise in the fees associated with the sale on a higher priced property — let’s say 7% for $600k currently for $42,000 in fees vs. $45,500 for a sales price of $650,000. It means you are spending $28,500 to make a possible $21,500 in 2 years. And that is if the renter doesn’t do any damage at all to the property.
My point is, there are arguments in favor of both. At the end of the day a purchase of a property is about more than just the sheer numbers. Do you want to live in fear of a renter harming your property? Do you know the prices will rise more than the amount of money you will be spending while you wait for values to go up? Do you want to live in a place where you can’t choose the colors on the wall or fixtures in the kitchen or bath? Are you sure your landlord won’t sell or raise your rent? Where you will live when your children start school and what school they will attend?
In the end I believe owning home is more important than market fluctuations one way or the other. A home may be a great investment, but it’s primary purpose for me, is piece of mind and standard of living. I believe you can justify yourself out of action either way, and need to weigh the consequences of being right as well as being wrong.
Heather Leikin and The House Agents were recently written about and cited in the following articles:
The Blooming Infrastructure of Greenness and ‘Green’ homes sell for 9 percent more, study says
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